How to be a Great Weather Forecaster

In the time honoured tradition of “Shoot the messenger” I bring you my guide to weather prediction…

1. Spend the first two thirds of the forecast talking about weather that has already happened. It is unlikely you will be particularly wrong about this bit.
2. Say that the weather today will be about the same as yesterday. But use more words. Since this is the case around 60% of the time you are probably going to be more accurate than all the complicated computer programs presently being used.
3. Make good use of “for the time of year”. Since nobody remembers what on earth that is, everyone will believe that what happens is what was supposed to happen.
4. If something you didn’t predict happens make good use of “since records began”. This implies that nobody else has seen this happen and so you shouldn’t be expected to anticipate it either. Don’t make the mistake of adding that the records you are referring to are the notes you made on a napkin a week or so ago.
5. Use words like “intermittent” and “scattered”, particularly in respect of things like rain and sunny periods. That way, if people don’t get that kind of weather where they are it can be rationalised as bad luck on their part.
6. Use a higher pitched voice for good weather, with a rising inflection at the end of sentences. Use a lower pitched voice for bad weather, with a falling inflection at the end of sentences.  And stare straight at the camera for the really bad bits.
7. Check out of the window before each forecast.

Snow Bored

I’m getting bored with the snow. I’m also getting bored with every news report leading with the story of how bad the snow is. I don’t actually need to be told this. I can find out how cold and slippery it is just by going outside. 

I’ve been trying to find activities that warm me up. Here they are, with notes about there usefulness:

Marking Software Engineering coursework

Absolutely useless. There were not even any really bad designs that would make me boil with indignation.

Driving Home

While the car itself got toasty warm after a mile or so I spent the entire drive in a cold sweat wondering if I was the only person on the road aware we were driving on ice. By the way everyone drove so close to me I reckon I probably was.

Playing Uncharted

Useless.  Unless you count the effort involved in restraining myself from throwing the gamepad at the wall after being killed by one of those really nasty goblin type things that keep coming after me with crossbows.

Watching “The Red Dahlia: Above Suspicion” on ITV

Pretty useless. Certain amount of warming anger about the way that the master criminal was tracked down by the expert police team simply by having someone ring up and say “It was him!”. Otherwise no good for keeping warm.

Playing Wii Sports Table Tennis

Actually worked quite well. Even though I lost.

Windows 7 God Mode

The internets are alive at the moment with discussion of the newly discovered ‘God Mode” for Windows 7. To take part in the fun, create a folder with the name:

GodMode.{ED7BA470-8E54-465E-825C-99712043E01C}

The folder magically becomes a “one stop shop” for all the Windows 7 control panels. I don’t think it lets you do anything you couldn’t do before, but it does put lots of useful things in one place.

Paper Review

I was up at 6:15 today and out onto the frozen roads to review the papers for the local BBC radio station. It was actually great fun although I’m not sure I could manage to do it every day. Everyone was very bright and chirpy at 7:00 am, which is not the kind of thing I could manage on a long term basis..

The centre of Hull at 7:55 am.

Back at Work

Today is officially “The Most Depressing Day of the Year (tm)”, what with the end of the Christmas and New Year break and a long wait to Easter.  At least the office was nice and warm when I got to work. What better way to start the new year than with a big pile of marking….

Actually, I’ve found a good way to banish the start of years blues. Play Turn it Up by Pixie Lott very loud. Works a treat.

End of Christmas 2009

Put the Christmas decorations away today. We hate doing this, although I reminded number one wife that putting them away now is the first step towards decorating for Christmas 2010.

Avatar (and Sherlock Holmes) Film Review

We went to see Avatar tonight. This was our third attempt to see the film. The first time we were snowed out, the second time it was full and we had to go and see Sherlock Homes instead.

Sherlock Homes is a blast. Just don’t go expecting to see anything which will stretch you intellectually (although it will stretch your credibility quite a lot). It has a lot in common with the Dan Brown novels. There are sinister cartels, strange goings on in high places and maps with lines drawn on them that point to the most obvious places - An attack on the Houses of Parliament? And not the whelk stall next door to it? How surprising.

Anyhoo, I found the Sherlock served up by Robert Downey Jr. much more fun than Robert Langton and Victorian London was very well realised.  If you have any pre-conceived ideas about Homes or Watson I suggest you leave them at the door though, along with a big chunk of your brain…

Avatar is a bit deeper. but only just. It was a story of  attempts by an evil company to subjugate the population of a planet made up entirely of scenes from old Yes and Ossibiza album covers (Note this is a very old reference, but if you are as old as me you can remember the art of Roger Dean). They - The Evil Company (tm)  that is – hire a crippled marine who is the genetically identical twin of his much more useful scientist brother, who was killed before the start of the film for reasons of plot.  Their Evil Plan (tm) is to gain the confidence of the natives and get intelligence by using a remote controlled Avatar which is bonded to our marine. Unfortunately (for the company) he goes native in a rather spectacular way, by falling for the Chief’s daughter (Who’d have thought?) and then things get explosively nasty.

The film is in 3D and this part works very well. At the start I was surprised by things that appeared to come out of the screen but by the end I was just watching a movie in 3D. And very impressive it was too.

As you would expect from a James Cameron film, the action sequences are great, but if you want deep philosophical content then you will have to look somewhere else. I think for me the most important aspect was the way that the computer generated elements were so well fused with the real actors and how the computer produced characters were both non-cartoonish and on the right side of the uncanny valley. Pretty soon we won’t need actors I reckon.

New Years Damage

Another attempt for Humanclock. It snowed a bit last night. Use your powers of deduction to work out what time the picture was taken…

I’ve hurt my “mouseing” finger. The index finger of my right hand. The one I click with. I did it by removing some cable trunking covers. It is a rule (at least in my house) that the TV with the worst low signal performance is on the end of the longest aerial cable. This means that it can’t receive some channels, in particular the new “Quest” channel (38) which was showing a marathon of Mythbusters today. So we removed a bunch of wires in an attempt to find out where all the signal was going. The results were inconclusive, but I did carve a nice chunk out of the side of my finger, which counts as progress I suppose, but not necessarily in a desirable direction.

Update on 2010-01-04 09:10 by Rob

Both my pictures are now on Human Clock. Wahay!

Happy New Year’s Eve

Had a great time this evening. Amongst other things we had a go at Bohnanza.  This is a card based training game that is a bit like a cross between Happy Families and Pit. You collect and plant sets of bean seeds in fields in an attempt to harvest them and get the most gold coins. It has a lot of trading and negotiation, which was the bit I enjoyed the most.   We got so engrossed in playing that we nearly forgot to celebrate the New Year itself.

The card game was a gift from the folks at Black Marble, who have an eye for a good game it seems. Thanks folks.

I’d like to wish all my readers (gosh, this sounds like I have readers) a very happy new year and all the best for 2010 (which doesn’t sound like a year to me – more like an eye test result….)

Evil Inkjet Prices

I ran out of yellow ink today. I thought I’d been rather cunning by getting a printer with separate ink tanks for each colour, so that I don’t have to replace an entire expensive cartridge just because one colour runs out. Unfortunately it seems I’ve actually been a bit silly, in that the price of a single colour refill seems to be about the same as my old “expensive” all in one option. Ho hum.

The good news for me though is that I can get a complete set of compatible refills for much less than the cost of a single authentic one. Usually I try to get the proper ink, because this does seem to produce better printouts, but with a price difference like this I’m feeling that I would be daft to go full price.

Human Clock

The Human Clock project is a really neat idea.  The creator is taking pictures from all over the world which contain the time and then using them to make a clock from all the different images. You can submit your own images on their web site, and if the author approves you can get a tiny slice of sort-of immortality. I’ve just sent the picture above. I’ve no idea how busy the 3:10 pm slot is (you can find out how many photos they have for each time) but you never know…

Digital Fun

Since I’ve been on holiday for a while I’m starting to get the urge to actually do stuff and mend things. Today I thought I’d start small by sorting out the aerial wire to a TV that, since the digital TV signal was “upgraded”, fails to play half the channels it used to. I attempted to solve this by improving the signal a bit. This turns out to be a multi-step process:

1. Replace nearly working connection with disconnected wire. Discover that there is now no picture at all.
2. Connect input to disconnected wire. But there is still no picture.
3. Search for and install antenna amplifier that has been lying around for a while and insert into signal chain to provide much needed boost.
4. Find that there is still no picture.
5. Discover that output is now being sent down wrong wire.
6. Connect to right wire and note that picture returns and mostly works. But not as well as before we started.
7. Discover that antenna amplifier is not actually plugged in. Plug it all the way into the socket. Now the picture is watchable, and we are just about back to where we were six months ago.

While I was up in the loft I got down an old computer from way back, just to see if it still works. It does, and so we recorded some old music files from it. Some of them go back to 1991. This was a ground breaking machine at the time, and it does boot fast from its 80MB disk. Any ideas which machine?

Sale Hunting

Went out today to get some things in the sale. Note to self, if you need to use a pound coin to get a trolley to fetch stuff from the store it is best if you actually have such a coin with you. Otherwise you can’t get what you want.

Actually, I could have solved this problem quite easily, but I reasoned that if I bought anything I’d have to carry it home and fit it (we were in a DIY store) and so this worked out quite well. Did manage to get a 10 metre rope light for only 10 pounds though, which struck me as good value. No idea what I’ll use it for, but it looks nice even coiled up.

Back in Hull

Drove back to Hull today. Again the roads were very friendly and the journey was smooth.

Christmas Cheer

Had a great Christmas. Got my Chumby, which even as I write is cycling through a bunch of widgets. I’m going to have a go at writing some widgets of my own when I get back to Hull.

I also got some eggs with surprises in, some books, slippers and of course socks. But nice ones.  I hope you all got what you wanted as well.

We went for a walk after lunch. Number one son took the best picture.

Driving Off for Christmas

Today we drove the length of the country (or a substantial part of it) to meet up for our Christmas celebrations. The weather has been dodgy to say the least, and last night the radio waves were full of dire warnings about dangerous roads, sheet ice and fog. There was no mention of a plague of locusts, but they were forecasting pretty much everything else.

We set off anyway. The direction we were going was away from the bad stuff, and things are supposed to be warming up. And so it turned out. The drive was actually quite boring and we arrived (with all our presents) in good time.

Semi-Colons in Tweet War

Never done this before, but Alfred2 made a post on Twitter that mentioned the way that Visual Basic programmers can eschew semi-colons that other languages seem to need to find the end of statements.

I responded that I quite like semi-colons, as they help me lay my programs out how I want. We then exchanged a couple more tweets about compiler design and there the matter rested. I think this was my first “Tweet War”

I quite like discussions like this. Of course there is no right answer in these situations (it is a bit like the the brace wars of way back where programmers debated the best way to lay out source code) but during the discourse you can pick up useful snippets of information and any experience in pitching arguments and defending your position is a good idea – as long as you approach it in the right frame of mind.

Years ago we had a debating society at the university and I ended up proposing the motion “Software Engineering is not Engineering”. I would have won the debate too, if I had taken the trouble to make sure that all my posse turned up – something my opponent had done first…

Snow in Hull

We don’t get much snow in Hull, it is certainly very rare that it sticks around this long, and looks as good as this after three days or so.

Christmas Meal Out

It was our staff Christmas “do” today. We had a really nice (and I mean really nice) meal at The Boar’s Nest in Hull. This being a gathering of Computer Scientists the conversation was of course highly cerebral, with the principle focus of discussions being on the role of the Software Engineer in modern society and how best to prepare ourselves for further changes that Information Technology will bring in the future.

Along with who had the biggest plate.

I was very proud of the way that I braved the slippery streets of Hull and walked both to and from the restaurant.

This year you have been watching…..

Battle Star Galactica Board Game Review

A tense moment in the game. Can you spot the Cylon sleeper agent?

Hmm. Two reviews in two posts.  I think I’m turning into Which magazine. Anyhoo, number one son and I spent the afternoon trying to get our heads around the Battlestar Galactica board game which I got as a Christmas present and seem to have opened early. But only so I could review it for you people of course.

The TV series is ace. From a fairly hack premise (robot slaves turn on their human masters) they created one of the best and most thoughtful dramas on telly. One thing that made the TV program so gripping was the way that any of the characters could in fact be a Cylon baddy; the robots being able to create versions of themselves that closely mimic humans. This twist both cuts down the cost of makeup and costumes and keeps the viewers on their toes as anyone could turn out nasty in the next episode.

The game has a tough act to follow and I reckon it makes it work. You don’t play to win as an individual, you play to make sure either the humans escape or the Cylons win. That means teamwork from the start, except of course for those players who are nominated as Cylon sleepers, who must do all they can to disrupt the human effort without being discovered.

The gameplay is pretty complicated, just like the TV show, with a lot of different kinds of crisis to deal with, battles to fight, Quorum card to play and all sorts of stuff. But by the end of a couple of hours we had figured out how the play works, and started to appreciate the cleverness of the design, which threads the events of episodes into a larger story arc. We are looking forward to having a proper go over the Christmas season.

Oh, and in our game William Adama was a Cylon sleeper and, not surprisingly, the humans lost.